According to @danheld, HODLers are the buyers of last resort who enabled Bitcoin to survive and thrive, signaling resilient long-term conviction in BTC, source: @danheld. Traders translate this into concrete signals by tracking long-term holder supply and HODL Waves to gauge float tightness and potential price floors, source: Glassnode. They also watch BTC exchange reserves to assess spot sell pressure and liquidity conditions, source: CryptoQuant. Spikes in social attention from influential voices often coincide with higher short-term volatility, so risk management around sentiment-driven moves is prudent, source: Santiment.

According to glassnode, BTC's Realized Cap HODL Waves data shows that holders in the 3–5 year cohort still control a significant 12% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. Historically, this group tends to sell during market strength, which often triggers profit-taking events. However, the recent slowdown in selling activity suggests many of these long-term holders are currently exhausted or waiting for higher price levels before offloading more BTC. For traders, this indicates that while there may be less immediate sell pressure from this cohort, any significant price rally could prompt renewed distribution. Monitoring these HODL Waves can help traders anticipate potential resistance zones and inform entry or exit strategies. Source: glassnode (June 2, 2025)